The next IFCN webinar on the current state of the world dairy market and forecasts for the future took place. Analysts noted a slight increase in world milk prices due to moderate increases in prices for most exchange-traded dairy products. We remind you that the results of the latest GDT tori on milkua.info
The moderate increase in butter prices at the beginning of the month still keeps prices stable, although given the world balance for this product, it is likely that this will not last long. The world cheese market shows rising prices amid concerns about weather conditions and rising demand from major importers at the end of the year. Prices for skimmed milk powder also show growth, driven by growth in Asian demand. The situation with whole milk powder is more complicated and ambiguous. On the one hand, there is a decrease in demand for import-dependent regions (Middle East), and on the other - an increase in purchasing activity from China, which balances the situation with this product.
As a result, analysts are cautiously changing their forecasts upwards. Stone X forecasts for the next 12 months are based on the target level of $ 35/100 kg, Rabobank forecasts price movements in the price range of $ 33-35 / 100 kg, Fonterra is less optimistic and believes the price corridor will be in the range of $ 28-33 / 100 kg.
However, such forecasts are quite shaky, so key global think tanks are still inclined to believe that the low price scenario looks more likely, as major exporters are experiencing a solid increase in milk production, and global demand from many importers in a recession may be insufficient.
The price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020 is as follows: New Zealand - 36.8 dollars / 100 kg; EU - 35.0 dollars / 100 kg; US $ 34.6 / 100 kg.
AMР Analytical Department based on the results of participation in the IFCN webinar 06.10.2020