Foreign trade in dairy products continues to move in its own direction, which is unfortunately not the best for the national dairy industry. Following the results of 7 months, exports amounted to 65.7 thousand tons for a total of 137.9 million dollars, which is 25% less than in the same period last year in monetary terms. At the same time, 52.4 thousand tons of stuffing were imported for a total of 168.9 million dollars, which is 160% more than last year. The negative balance continued to grow and set a new anti-record - minus 31 million dollars.
The main part of export losses falls on key export items - milk powder and butter, the structural share of which is 47%. The decline in milk powder exports continues to intensify, in seven months it reached almost 40% - up to 34.2 million dollars. Butter exports fell 42% to $ 30.7 million. Exports of liquid milk and non-condensed cream also dropped significantly, minus 22.2% to $ 7.5 million, and sour milk products to minus 15.2% to $ 4.6 million. and cheese - minus 11.1%, to 11.6 million dollars.
Exports are growing only in three trade items - casein (+ 9.8%, up to $ 23.9 million), ice cream (4.9%, up to $ 12.5 million) and whey (+ 3.1%, to $ 12.8 million), the latter showing the most dynamic growth due to the recovery of the pig population in China. However, such an increase is offset by a fall in other positions, as well as an increase in imports, which shifts the trade balance deeper into the negative zone.
In the growth of imports, the leadership continues to hold butter - + 670% ($ 29 million), in addition, cheese imports, albeit slowly, but continues to grow - + 130%, to $ 110 million. Structurally, these are the two main goods, which currently account for 82% of Ukrainian dairy imports. The share of other products is much smaller, but their growth rates can not help but worry. Thus, the second place after butter in terms of growth dynamics has the group of milk and non-condensed cream - + 384% (6.6 million dollars). On the third group of powdered and condensed milk - + 262% ($ 8.5 million). On the fourth casein - + 240% (0.6 million dollars). Growth is also observed in other dairy products: ice cream - + 93% (+3.8 million dollars), fermented milk products - + 43.5% (7.2 million dollars), whey - 27.4% (3.2 million)
The growth of imports was not hindered even by quarantine restrictions, which cannot be said about exports. Even now, in the season of traditional activation of Ukrainian traders and in the conditions of weakening of the hryvnia, exports are not able to compensate for the losses in the trade balance from growing imports, due to which we see an increase in the negative balance. Currently, there are no prerequisites for a positive change in the situation, so by the end of the year the negative trade balance will increase.
AMP Analytical Department