The balance of foreign trade in dairy products, in the first month of 2021, is still in the negative zone: the result of January 2021 - minus 6.68 million dollars.
And although the trend can be called quite conditional, because the first month of the year is traditionally shortened and reduced activity due to seasonal holidays, but in such circumstances, a preliminary forecast emerges, according to which by the end of the year the foreign trade balance is unlikely to go into positive range, Volodymyr Andriyets, chief analyst of the Association of Milk Producers, reports.
The conditional positive (especially January for trade - can not adequately reflect the general situation) - a slowdown in import growth, which in the first month amounted to 5.9 thousand tons totaling $ 19.6 million. This is 1.6% less than last year.
"Nevertheless, we are already looking at the future leaders in the growth of imported supplies: the group of condensed milk and cream, which already has a three-digit increase - + 105%, up to 470 tons, and in monetary terms even more - + 125% with a total of 1 , $ 14 million The group of fermented-milk products, which is growing by more than 30% to 734 tons, has taken an active start. The situation in the trade in liquid milk and cream is not clear, as in real terms it continues to grow at the level of 13%, and in monetary terms a significant decline - by 26%. Most likely, this is due to significant reductions in purchase prices in the post-New Year period, due to the short shelf life of products of this group, and this situation is, of course, temporary," said Volodymyr Andriiets.
Imports of cheeses continue to increase, and in monetary terms it is more significant - + 8.4% ($ 13.4 million) than in kind - + 0.6% (2.8 thousand tons). Given that the share of physical volumes of cheese imports is 47%, an increase of even 0.6% means +17 tons of product on the market per month, and this figure is likely to increase during the year.
For other groups of goods there are zeros and even minuses, which in terms of imports is perceived even unusual. Thus, butter was imported by 42.5% less (585 tons), whey by 24.7% (310 tons), casein by 92% less (2.8 tons), and ice cream at the level of January last year 23,5 t.). However, these are only the features of January, and this is certainly short-term, especially given the shortage of raw milk materials, which will increase this year.
Volodymyr Andriіets also notes that foreign trade in terms of export activity, at present, still looks not so bad, but given the dynamics of previous years, even in some respects positive. At present, Ukraine has exported 6.8 thousand tons of dairy products, which is 5.1% less than last year, although in monetary terms the decline was 0.3% (to 12.9 million dollars). In general, the main export-oriented groups of goods, except for oil, show a good start. Thus, exports of powdered and condensed milk increased by 20% to 1.9 thousand tons, whey - by 9.5% to 1.9 thousand tons. Cheeses at the start showed an increase of 20% to 410 thousand tons and may this year show an upward trend that began in the second half of last year. The highest growth rate is now shown by the export of ice cream, which currently stands at 67% compared to January last year.
Among the losses of export positions, the largest are observed in the group of liquid milk and cream, which amounted to minus 45%, to 1.1 thousand tons. Dairy products from the groups of butter - minus 8.3%, fermented milk products - minus 6, 8% and casein - minus 1.6%. At the same time, cash proceeds from the casein trade show an increase of 5% and it is likely to maintain an upward trend throughout the year.
The future for butter exports may look promising, given that world prices have begun to rise sharply and the price of Ukrainian products looks quite competitive, but there is a strong countervailing factor - the shortage of butter in the domestic market, which began to form late last year. At the same time, given the shortage of raw materials, a significant increase in butter exports this year should not be expected.
AMР Analytical Department