In November, the export activity of Ukrainian companies likely slowed due to a shortage of raw milk on the domestic market, rising production costs, weakening global prices for dairy fats and cheeses, and the onset of the traditional lull in the global dairy market ahead of the New Year holidays, reports Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili, an analyst at the Association of Milk Producers of Ukraine.
According to preliminary data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in November 2024, Ukraine exported 37.4 thousand tons of dairy products (in milk equivalent) worth $21.94 million. The natural volume of exports increased by only 1% compared to October of this year but grew by 31% compared to November 2023. Revenue from exported goods decreased by 14% compared to October 2024 but increased by 35% compared to November 2023.
From January to November 2024, 350.6 thousand tons of dairy products (in milk equivalent) were exported, worth $274.8 million. In natural volumes, dairy exports increased by 9%, and revenue from exported goods increased by 15% compared to the same period last year.
The main export categories in November in monetary terms were as follows:
- Cheese: 28%
- Dry and condensed milk: 26%
- Butter: 21%
- Casein: 12%
⇒ Compared to October of this year, Ukraine increased revenue from exported dry and condensed milk (+10%), whey (+4%), and cheese (+1%). However, in the last month, export revenue decreased for non-condensed milk (-52%), fermented dairy products (-73%), butter (-33%), ice cream (-169%), and casein (-14%).
⇒ Compared to November 2023, revenue increased for exported dry and condensed milk (+71%), fermented dairy products (+27%), butter (+90%), cheese (+86%), and ice cream (+38%). However, export revenue decreased for non-condensed milk (-87%), whey (-96%), and casein (-21%).
Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine has increased export revenue for all product categories, namely dry and condensed milk (+6%), non-condensed milk (+8%), fermented dairy products (+28%), whey (+21%), butter (+14%), cheese (+27%), ice cream (+21%), and casein (+7%).
Georgiy Kukhaleyshvili suggests that the slowdown in export activity of Ukrainian companies in November was likely due to a shortage of raw milk on the domestic market. High raw material prices and rising production costs prevented dairy processing enterprises from increasing the output of finished products. Export activity is influenced by a certain reduction in global demand for dairy products, which is traditionally observed at the end of the fourth quarter. This was evidenced by the weakening of prices for dairy fats and cheeses following the 368th GDT auction held in the second half of November. Many food industry enterprises had already stocked up on dairy products ahead of the New Year holidays, and exporters from dairy regions were signing contracts for the supply of exchange-traded goods for the first quarter of 2025.
High prices and inflation have led to a reduction in the consumption of domestically produced dairy products in Ukraine. At the same time, the import of dairy products into the country has increased. In November 2024, the natural volume of dairy product imports into Ukraine amounted to 47.3 thousand tons (in milk equivalent), which is 22% more compared to October of this year and 4% more compared to November 2023. In monetary terms, the volume of dairy product imports last month amounted to $29 million, an increase of 49% compared to October of this year and 47% compared to November 2023.
From January to November 2024, 382.4 thousand tons of dairy products (in milk equivalent) were imported into Ukraine, worth $251.83 million. In natural volumes, dairy product imports for the 11 months of 2024 decreased by 8%, while in monetary terms, they increased by 12% compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, the import of butter into Ukraine in monetary terms has increased by 17%, cheese by 9%, and ice cream by 23%. Other categories saw a decrease.
In November, the trade balance was negative and amounted to $7.06 million.
Press Service of the Association of Milk Producers
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