The weighted average price of milk in 2021 will continue to grow and may reach 12.82 UAH / kg.
Obviously, there will be a seasonal decline until the end of summer. But it is difficult to predict how significant it will be, because the main deterrent to the seasonal decline and at the same time the driver of the upward movement in Ukraine in the last two years is the shortage of raw materials. Therefore, the seasonal fall in the weighted average price of three varieties while maintaining the current conditions can reach 11 UAH / kg. At the same time, further growth will depend on the level of demand, which is likely to remain, future feed prices and inflation.
This was announced by the chief analyst of the Association of Milk Producers Volodymyr Andriіets during the international workshop "Development of the Dairy Industry of Ukraine" of the International Finance Corporation and AMР.
Experts fear that the price of milk in 2021 will be quite dependent on the economic situation in the world as a whole. Although in 2020 it can be stated that the dairy industry has withstood the blow of the pandemic and a series of lockdowns.
If the situation is as it is now, then taking into account the trends of the previous 4 years, we can have approximately the following picture, which is marked in the form of a prognosis by a blue line:
Volodymyr Andriіets noted that the dairy market of Ukraine and pricing in general depends on the economic situation on the market and is fully regulated by supply and demand.
"In the case of a negative scenario, the forecast will correspond to the dotted line. But this option is unlikely because it takes into account the difficult economic situation as a whole. In addition, this will be countered by a rather strong deterrent to the shortage of raw materials in Ukraine. Processors are not in a simple situation, because in such conditions no one wants to lose the base of their raw materials. Therefore, the approximate forecast will be as follows - now we have a weighted average price of 11.64 UAH / kg. By the end of the summer there will be a seasonal decrease to 11 UAH / kg. After that, it is expected to increase to UAH 12.82 / kg,” the expert said.